Nigeria’s Time Of Uncertainty

The outcome of the February 14 election will have serious implications both for the country itself and for how it is viewed around the world. The election is taking place at a very difficult time, when after more than 14 years of rule by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Nigeria faces frightening challenges on many fronts: the recent precipitous decline in oil revenue, the growing lack of con­fidence by the general public, and the ongoing menace of the mili­tant Islamist group Boko Haram.
Once a local terrorist group, Boko Haram has assumed a larger regional and even national pres­ence. Almost a year ago, the group kidnapped more than 230 school girls from Chibok in Borno State, and the country’s authorities have yet to account for them. Since then Boko Haram has carried out several terrorist attacks and have kidnapped many more women and children.
The onslaught of the sect against the masses of poor Nigeri­ans, both Christians and Muslims, has exposed the gross ineptitude of the Nigerian authorities. The ability of Boko Haram to chal­lenge the territorial integrity of Nigeria, especially in Bornu, Adamawa, and Yobe states has clearly revealed the extent of the crisis of the state.
Although it is wrong to call Nigeria a failing state, there are significant signs of decay and destruction unprecedented in its history. Nigeria is a nation of about 180 million people. Its wealth,human and natural resources, are unparalleled on the continent. Yet, she remains eco­nomically one of the most disad­vantaged countries in the world.
According to the United Nations Human Development Index, Nige­ria ranks 152 out of 187 countries in terms of economic and social development. In addition to the uncertainty about its future, par­ticularly due to terrorism, it faces unprecedented corruption and violence in all sectors.
Those familiar with Nigeria, however, are amazed by the resil­ience of the citizens and their ca­pacity to endure and to hope for a better future. One of the cardinal factors that give its people hope is the vibrancy of its faith traditions.
Nigeria’s religious triple heritage--Islam, Christianity, and traditional religion--fascinates outsiders and even Nigerians themselves. The vibrancy of its evangelical, Pentecostal, and char­ismatic churches, its gorgeous, imposing mosques and its color­ful, festive religious ceremonies are central to Africa’s identity.
But in addition to express­ing the cultural richness of the Nigerian peoples, religion is also largely responsible for their divi­siveness.
That religion has entered into politics and governance is not new; it is as old as the history of the nation itself. What is new in the current dispensation is the extent to which religion domi­nates national life. The myth of the secular Nigerian state that purports to separate the institu­tions of religion from those of the government has failed to trans­late into reality. Indeed, there is evidence to show that Nigeria’s troublesome religious conflict, especially in the northeastern and Middle Belt states, will negatively affect the election next month.
Goodluck Jonathan, a Chris­tian from the oil rich Niger Delta region, is the incumbent presiden­tial candidate for the PDP. During his pilgrimage to Israel months ago, he stated that it was neces­sary to “seek the face of God” to prepare for the looming combat between him and his opponents.
General Mohammadu Buhari, of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is a Northern Muslim. He has promised to put a stop to corruption, address the serious security threat of Boko Haram’s insurgency, curb the country’s economic decline, and curtail religious conflict in Northern and Middle Belt states.
Although Buhari initially expressed interest in a Muslim running mate for the presidential election in February, strong oppo­sition from Christians forced APC leaders to chose Yemi Osinbajo, a distinguished law professor, Pen­tecostal pastor and a former state attorney general as vice presiden­tial candidate.
It is certain that in the forth­coming election, religion will play a dominant role. As a result, there is increasing speculation as to the allegiance of evangelical and Pentecostal leaders.
The dynamics of the Nigerian election defies current political theories that claim that ethnicity trumps religion in politics. What we are seeing is how religion may be competing with ethnic affili­ation to determine the future of Nigeria through the electoral vote.
CredittoProf. Jacob Olupona